September vs its historical average
How this calendar month is tracking against every September on record.
Trading 9.27 pts above its seasonal norm this month.
Where could BTC go next, and when?
From the price right now to the end of each period, based on what happened from the same point in past periods.
How to read the price targets
Each card starts from the current price and looks at the rest of the period (today, this week, this month, this quarter).
- Up target / down target: the move that was reached in about 7 of 10 past periods from this same point in time. Stretch is a bigger move reached in about 1 of 3.
- Chance: the exact share of past periods that reached the level. Up and down targets are not alternatives: in many periods price touches both.
- Most likely time: among the past periods that reached the target, when the rest-of-period high (or low) happened. Shown in UTC and in your own time.
- Track record: every 30 minutes the site re-predicts the recent past (last 90 days, 30 weeks, 16 months, 10 quarters) using only the data available at each moment, stores every prediction and what happened, and re-tunes itself to the setting whose chances came true most accurately. The chance shown is that measured hit rate.
- Tested: we replayed the method on recent periods using only earlier data. If the tested rate is much lower than the chance, the market is currently behaving differently from the past, so trust the target less.
- Next period: once two-thirds of a period have passed, its card switches to the next one (tomorrow, next week, next month, next quarter), measured from roughly today's price, and adds how that same weekday / month / quarter has closed in past years.
- These are statistics, not advice. They say nothing about which way the market will go overall.
Example: Today, up target $84,300 (+0.9%), 70% chance, most likely 21:00–24:00 UTC. That means: in about 7 of the last 10 days, price rose at least 0.9% above where it was at this time of day before the day ended, and the day's remaining high was most often made between 21:00 and 24:00 UTC.
Unsure about a word? Click the next to any heading, or open the Beginner's Guide. Statistics describe the past and are not financial advice.
Detailed statisticsusual ranges, backtests and timing charts
Market Signals — probable range
Methodology →How to read the Market Signals
Each card is one period: today, this week, this month, this quarter. Everything is measured from that period's open (the thin white tick).
- Usual high / low (amber zone): in about 2 of 3 past periods the high stayed below the usual high and the low stayed above the usual low. reached means this period has already gone past it; otherwise the card shows how far it is from the current price.
- Range so far (light bar) is the actual high and low of this period up to now. The dot is the current price.
- Extremes are the largest moves seen in the history window. They are rare by definition.
- Direction: past up/down rates hover around 50%, and the backtest shows the method cannot call direction better than a coin flip, so the card says no direction edge unless the backtest clearly beats 50%.
- Usual range held: how often both limits held in the backtest. About 45–60% is normal because two limits must hold at once.
Example: This week opened at 84,472. The usual high is 88,865 (+5.2%) and the usual low 79,722 (−5.6%). So far the week has traded 82,563 – 84,999, so neither is reached: in about 2 of 3 past weeks price did not go beyond those levels.
Unsure about a word? Click the next to any heading, or open the Beginner's Guide. Statistics describe the past and are not financial advice.
Already above the usual high (reached +2.4% vs a usual +1.9%): a stronger-than-usual day up. Direction: no reliable edge (backtest 46% right over 180 days; a coin flip is 50%).
Still inside the usual range. Usual limits from here: up to $88,865 (+6.1%) and down to $79,722 (−4.8%). Direction: no reliable edge (backtest 50% right over 104 weeks; a coin flip is 50%).
Still inside the usual range. Usual limits from here: up to $90,784 (+8.4%) and down to $70,931 (−15.3%). With 100% of the month already gone, reaching them is less likely than that. Direction: no reliable edge (backtest 58% right over 48 months; a coin flip is 50%).
Already above the usual high (reached +49.1% vs a usual +34.9%): a stronger-than-usual quarter up. Direction: no reliable edge (backtest 45% right over 20 quarters; a coin flip is 50%). Only 20 quarters of history, so treat the range as rough.
Usual high/low = the 68th-percentile move from the open over the recent history of the same kind of period. Extremes = the biggest moves in that history. Backtest = each past forecast rebuilt from earlier data only, then compared with what really happened.
When are the high and the low most likely?
How to read the timing chart
We looked at every past day, week, month or quarter and noted when its highest and lowest price happened. Each bar is the share of past periods whose high (green, up) or low (red, down) fell in that time slot.
- Tall bars = likely times. The dashed line is the even-odds level: if highs and lows were spread completely evenly, every bar would sit on it.
- The white line is now. Slots that are already over are faded. Still ahead adds up the slots to the right of the line: the chance that this period's high (or low) has not happened yet.
- ▲ / ▼ mark where this period's high and low so far were made.
- Highs and lows usually bunch near the start and end of a period. That U-shape is what any wandering price produces, so on its own it is a tendency, not a trading edge.
Example: It is 14:20 UTC. The chart says the day's high is still ahead in 47% of past days. That is close to a coin flip, so being early or late in the day tells you little. If it said 12%, the day's high would most likely already be in.
Unsure about a word? Click the next to any heading, or open the Beginner's Guide. Statistics describe the past and are not financial advice.
Explore by timeframe
All analysis tools →Latest daily data
Full dataset →How to read the latest daily data
One row per UTC day, newest first. Open is where the day started, High and Low its extremes, Close where it ended (or the latest price for today). Change is Close versus Open: green if the day is up, red if down. The small bar shows how big the move was compared with the other rows.
Unsure about a word? Click the next to any heading, or open the Beginner's Guide. Statistics describe the past and are not financial advice.
| Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | $83,663.66 | $85,649.95 | $82,956.11 | $83,782.00 | +0.14% |
| 2026-09-29 | $83,500.01 | $84,563.99 | $82,775.94 | $83,663.66 | +0.20% |
| 2026-09-28 | $84,472.01 | $84,999.00 | $82,563.00 | $83,500.01 | -1.15% |
| 2026-09-27 | $84,433.11 | $85,159.03 | $84,132.00 | $84,472.00 | +0.05% |
| 2026-09-26 | $84,100.00 | $84,473.58 | $83,798.00 | $84,433.10 | +0.40% |
| 2026-09-25 | $84,410.24 | $85,255.00 | $83,183.00 | $84,099.99 | -0.37% |
| 2026-09-24 | $84,397.60 | $84,942.45 | $82,874.93 | $84,410.24 | +0.01% |
| 2026-09-23 | $86,208.57 | $87,278.54 | $83,500.01 | $84,397.60 | -2.10% |
| 2026-09-22 | $86,620.01 | $86,717.60 | $85,114.00 | $86,208.56 | -0.48% |
| 2026-09-21 | $81,178.01 | $87,395.67 | $80,850.22 | $86,620.00 | +6.70% |